The regulatory shifts influenced by the Trump administration have the potential to position 2025 as a transformative year for blockchain technology, akin to the pivotal moment for ChatGPT. This perspective is supported by research from Citi, which anticipates substantial growth in stablecoins.
Citi forecasts that the total supply of stablecoins could escalate from $230 billion to between $1.6 trillion and $3.7 trillion by 2030. The report emphasizes that regulatory clarity in the United States may be a key driver for this increase, facilitating the integration of stablecoins and broader blockchain applications within the traditional financial system.
The analysis indicates that approximately 90% of the stablecoin supply is expected to remain US dollar-denominated, while other nations predominantly focus on Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). Notably, Trump has previously indicated that the US is unlikely to pursue this direction.
Establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoins in the U.S. could generate new demand for US Treasuries, positioning stablecoin issuers among the largest holders by 2030. While Citi acknowledges that stablecoins could pose challenges to traditional banking systems through deposit substitution, it also highlights the potential for banks to explore new service offerings, either as issuers or through their participation in payment systems and liquidity provisioning.
For further insights, the full report is available for download.